You are here"An Inconvenient Truth" Analysis
"An Inconvenient Truth" Analysis
Submitted by theTellurian on 24 March 2008 - 10:46pm
Are the claims in this movie based on sound evidence? Even scientists that agree with climate change do not believe the claims made by the movie. A dangerous idea that this documentary promotes is that you don't need to be correct or have real evidence if the outcome is percieved to be correct: In other words, the end justifies the means.
For the meme "Global Warming" to propogate through society, it needs willing (or lazy) minds. Do you really understand Climate Change? Where did you get your information from? What goes through your mind when you hear the words Polar Bears, Polar Ice Caps, Hurricanes, Droughts, and Floods just to name a few. These would have conjured up vastly different thoughts a few years back. Now these words all relate to Climate Change. To a very large extent your ideas and thoughts are being hijacked because as consumers of media, we are very lax in analysing what information we let into their brains. There is just so much of it. The media packages highly complex ideas into memes that are easily digested. For example, "CO2 is the main cause of Climate Change", "There is scientific consensus". These types of ideas should be treated with great suspicion. Climate is one of the most complex of systems to analyse or to model, yet we are asked to believe that one component only, CO2, is the the main driving force of climate. Also note, that many claims about Climate Change use the words like "might" or "could" without the need for further evidence.
The evidence that the 0.6oC change in the last one hundred years is man made is based on the CO2 increase during that time. This evidence is circumstantial and the only evidence that exists for man made global warming. In the past climate changed without the existence of man.
Words linked with climate change: Hurricanes, droughts, floods, melting polar ice caps, polar bears, hot temperatures, green house gases, airplane travel, SUV’s (four wheel drives), wind farms, solar energy, natural disasters, consensus, carbon footprint, carbon credits, save the planet.
Method of Transport: This meme has been packaged and spread by the movie “An Inconvenient Truth” and by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The mass media has propogated these ideas.
Claim 1: The snows and glaciers of Mt Kilimanjaro are subsiding because of Global warming.
Evidence Presented: Visual evidence shows the snows and glaciers have been subsiding on Mt Kilimanjaro.
The Facts: Since surveys of the mountain began in 1880, the snow and ice has been declining steadily well before mans’ contribution to CO2 emissions.
A study by Philip Mote (University of Washington in the United States) and Georg Kaser (University of Innsbruck in Austria) reveal that the glacial retreat is not due to global warming but to solar energy sublimating the ice (converting ice directly into water vapour). For further details see: http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/55553;jsessionid=baa7SNWHt7RD8V?fulltext=true
Nature Magazines, Betsy Mason , attributes the change to deforestation which in turn contributes to less humidity causing the ice to evaporate. For Details see http://www.nature.com/news/2003/031117/full/031117-8.html.
Claim 2: Ice core studies show that CO2 and temperature relationship are linked. From this Al Gore concludes: “When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer”.
Evidence Presented: Graphs displaying ice core data showing temperature set against CO2 levels.
The Facts:The visuals suggest a tight coupling of CO2 and temperature. What the graph failed to show and what Al Gore failed to mention was that CO2 level increases occurred much later after the temperature increase: hundreds of years later. This means that the driving force for climate change was not CO2. This is very important because the whole global warming issue revolves around this premise: That CO2 increases will cause major catastrophic climate change.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
Claim 3: There will be an increase in Hurricanes and storm activity. Global warming will cause Floods and Drought.
Evidence Presented: The year 2004 had a record breaking number of hurricanes and storms. What is focused on is Hurricane Katrina. Al Gore simply says, “. . . and of course, when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms". He also shows aerial views of Lake Chad in Africa, showing that it is on the verge of drying up.
The Facts: There is not enough evidence that increases in ocean temperature will cause an increase in hurricane or storm activity. The following Times article (June 7th , 2007 Big increase in hurricanes is not caused by global heating), states that “The researchers were unable to identify any direct link between increased hurricanes and rising sea level temperatures”. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1896266.ece . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also is unable to provide a link between a warming world and hurricanes. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html . Hurricane Katrina hit a densly populated area (New Orleans) and caused alot of devistation due to levies holding back water being breeched. Otherwise we would not have remembered this particular hurricane.
Lake Chad is drying up because it is the most irrigated lake in Africa and one of the most shallow. From evidence taken of sediment, it has nearly dried out multiple times over the last few thousand years. In the last century, it has nearly dried out in 1908 and 1984. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Chad
Claim 4: The ice around Antartica are melting.
Evidence Presented: Salellite photos showing the changes of ice caps.
The Facts: The ice around the poles is constantly in flux, growing and shrinking all the time. The ice isn’t melting but breaking off which is a normal process. The visual record of the polar ice caps has only been happening since satellites have been able to take photos.
The Antarctic region temperature has even had a net cooling effect:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/01/0125_020125_antarcticaclimate.html
Claim 5: Polar bears are threatened by global warming and are dying because of it.
Evidence Presented: The movie provides anecdotal evidence of a dead polar bear being spotted way out to sea using computer graphics animation.
The Facts: Polar bear populations have been increasing and have almost tripled in the Davis Strait area of Canada since the 80’s.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/world/Polar-bears-defy-extinction-threat.2601363.jp
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20631
Claim 6: Gulf stream and the ocean conveyer belt will be shut down if climate change continues.
Evidence Presented: Al Gore explains what has happened in the past where the ice sheets of North America melted.
The Facts: This is a little strange because he talks about the glaciers which covered most of North America melting. How this occurred in not explained. He goes on to say that after this, it took as little as 10 years for an ice age to develop in Europe. Now that’s what I call climate change. There is no evidence to suggest that the Gulf stream will be shut down.
Claim 7: There is Scientific Concensus on climate change so therefore it must be true.
Evidence Presented: Of 928 articles on climate change, humans are seen as part of the cause.
The Facts: Consensus among scientist does not equal truth. There are many scientists who disagree that climate change is caused by man and by the increase in CO2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
Claim 8: The Mann et al "hockey stick" graph shows a dramatic increase of temperature rises in the last century. This is used to show the corresponding future increases in temperature.
Evidence Presented: Statistical analysis of past temperature shown in a graph.
The Facts: This graph’s data has been disputed and cannot be independently recreated. This graph is no longer used on the IPCC site. http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba478/
Claim 9: Computer models predict that the future temperatures will be catastrophic.
Evidence Presented: none.
The Facts: Climate is one of the most complex of systems. A computer model can only attempt at an approximation of what is happening. Even then, minor changes can have major impacts. Climate models can be made to show anything by simply tweaking data to fit a model that one is attempting to prove. For climate to be effectively modelled by computer, every aspect of climate would need to be understood and taken into consideration. In effect you would need to model the whole earth down to its very core, its oceans, atmosphere layers and its interaction with the solar system (including the gravitational effects of the moon and sun). At present this is not possible. For every computer model that shows catastrophic global temperature increases there are many more than do not.
Claim 10: C02 is the most important greenhouse gas and is the cause of climate change.
Evidence Presented: none.
The Facts: Water vapour is the most prevalent greenhouse gas and has the most effect on climate. However, even with this in mind, water has not caused catastrophic climate change. Also surprisingly, water (in the form of clouds) is often omitted from the computer models of climate because it's effects are too difficult to model.
It should be noted that nature pumps 150 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Man made contributions account for about 7 billion tonnes. The level of CO2 is measured in parts per million. The increase has been 33% to the current level of 380ppm.
Explanation of Greenhouse gases: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
Introduction
The movie, “An Inconvenient Truth” contains all the components that people now recognise as Global Warming. It has been widely praised and has received an Academy Award. Al Gore shared in a Nobel Peace prize with the IPCC in 2007.Are the claims in this movie based on sound evidence? Even scientists that agree with climate change do not believe the claims made by the movie. A dangerous idea that this documentary promotes is that you don't need to be correct or have real evidence if the outcome is percieved to be correct: In other words, the end justifies the means.
For the meme "Global Warming" to propogate through society, it needs willing (or lazy) minds. Do you really understand Climate Change? Where did you get your information from? What goes through your mind when you hear the words Polar Bears, Polar Ice Caps, Hurricanes, Droughts, and Floods just to name a few. These would have conjured up vastly different thoughts a few years back. Now these words all relate to Climate Change. To a very large extent your ideas and thoughts are being hijacked because as consumers of media, we are very lax in analysing what information we let into their brains. There is just so much of it. The media packages highly complex ideas into memes that are easily digested. For example, "CO2 is the main cause of Climate Change", "There is scientific consensus". These types of ideas should be treated with great suspicion. Climate is one of the most complex of systems to analyse or to model, yet we are asked to believe that one component only, CO2, is the the main driving force of climate. Also note, that many claims about Climate Change use the words like "might" or "could" without the need for further evidence.
The evidence that the 0.6oC change in the last one hundred years is man made is based on the CO2 increase during that time. This evidence is circumstantial and the only evidence that exists for man made global warming. In the past climate changed without the existence of man.
Analysis of claims made by "An Inconvenient Truth"
Main Memes: Global Warming, Anthropogenic Climate Change (man made), Greenhouse effect.Words linked with climate change: Hurricanes, droughts, floods, melting polar ice caps, polar bears, hot temperatures, green house gases, airplane travel, SUV’s (four wheel drives), wind farms, solar energy, natural disasters, consensus, carbon footprint, carbon credits, save the planet.
Method of Transport: This meme has been packaged and spread by the movie “An Inconvenient Truth” and by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The mass media has propogated these ideas.
Claim 1: The snows and glaciers of Mt Kilimanjaro are subsiding because of Global warming.
Evidence Presented: Visual evidence shows the snows and glaciers have been subsiding on Mt Kilimanjaro.
The Facts: Since surveys of the mountain began in 1880, the snow and ice has been declining steadily well before mans’ contribution to CO2 emissions.
A study by Philip Mote (University of Washington in the United States) and Georg Kaser (University of Innsbruck in Austria) reveal that the glacial retreat is not due to global warming but to solar energy sublimating the ice (converting ice directly into water vapour). For further details see: http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/55553;jsessionid=baa7SNWHt7RD8V?fulltext=true
Nature Magazines, Betsy Mason , attributes the change to deforestation which in turn contributes to less humidity causing the ice to evaporate. For Details see http://www.nature.com/news/2003/031117/full/031117-8.html.
Claim 2: Ice core studies show that CO2 and temperature relationship are linked. From this Al Gore concludes: “When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer”.
Evidence Presented: Graphs displaying ice core data showing temperature set against CO2 levels.
The Facts:The visuals suggest a tight coupling of CO2 and temperature. What the graph failed to show and what Al Gore failed to mention was that CO2 level increases occurred much later after the temperature increase: hundreds of years later. This means that the driving force for climate change was not CO2. This is very important because the whole global warming issue revolves around this premise: That CO2 increases will cause major catastrophic climate change.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
Claim 3: There will be an increase in Hurricanes and storm activity. Global warming will cause Floods and Drought.
Evidence Presented: The year 2004 had a record breaking number of hurricanes and storms. What is focused on is Hurricane Katrina. Al Gore simply says, “. . . and of course, when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms". He also shows aerial views of Lake Chad in Africa, showing that it is on the verge of drying up.
The Facts: There is not enough evidence that increases in ocean temperature will cause an increase in hurricane or storm activity. The following Times article (June 7th , 2007 Big increase in hurricanes is not caused by global heating), states that “The researchers were unable to identify any direct link between increased hurricanes and rising sea level temperatures”. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1896266.ece . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also is unable to provide a link between a warming world and hurricanes. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html . Hurricane Katrina hit a densly populated area (New Orleans) and caused alot of devistation due to levies holding back water being breeched. Otherwise we would not have remembered this particular hurricane.
Lake Chad is drying up because it is the most irrigated lake in Africa and one of the most shallow. From evidence taken of sediment, it has nearly dried out multiple times over the last few thousand years. In the last century, it has nearly dried out in 1908 and 1984. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Chad
Claim 4: The ice around Antartica are melting.
Evidence Presented: Salellite photos showing the changes of ice caps.
The Facts: The ice around the poles is constantly in flux, growing and shrinking all the time. The ice isn’t melting but breaking off which is a normal process. The visual record of the polar ice caps has only been happening since satellites have been able to take photos.
The Antarctic region temperature has even had a net cooling effect:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/01/0125_020125_antarcticaclimate.html
Claim 5: Polar bears are threatened by global warming and are dying because of it.
Evidence Presented: The movie provides anecdotal evidence of a dead polar bear being spotted way out to sea using computer graphics animation.
The Facts: Polar bear populations have been increasing and have almost tripled in the Davis Strait area of Canada since the 80’s.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/world/Polar-bears-defy-extinction-threat.2601363.jp
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20631
Claim 6: Gulf stream and the ocean conveyer belt will be shut down if climate change continues.
Evidence Presented: Al Gore explains what has happened in the past where the ice sheets of North America melted.
The Facts: This is a little strange because he talks about the glaciers which covered most of North America melting. How this occurred in not explained. He goes on to say that after this, it took as little as 10 years for an ice age to develop in Europe. Now that’s what I call climate change. There is no evidence to suggest that the Gulf stream will be shut down.
Claim 7: There is Scientific Concensus on climate change so therefore it must be true.
Evidence Presented: Of 928 articles on climate change, humans are seen as part of the cause.
The Facts: Consensus among scientist does not equal truth. There are many scientists who disagree that climate change is caused by man and by the increase in CO2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
Claim 8: The Mann et al "hockey stick" graph shows a dramatic increase of temperature rises in the last century. This is used to show the corresponding future increases in temperature.
Evidence Presented: Statistical analysis of past temperature shown in a graph.
The Facts: This graph’s data has been disputed and cannot be independently recreated. This graph is no longer used on the IPCC site. http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba478/
Claim 9: Computer models predict that the future temperatures will be catastrophic.
Evidence Presented: none.
The Facts: Climate is one of the most complex of systems. A computer model can only attempt at an approximation of what is happening. Even then, minor changes can have major impacts. Climate models can be made to show anything by simply tweaking data to fit a model that one is attempting to prove. For climate to be effectively modelled by computer, every aspect of climate would need to be understood and taken into consideration. In effect you would need to model the whole earth down to its very core, its oceans, atmosphere layers and its interaction with the solar system (including the gravitational effects of the moon and sun). At present this is not possible. For every computer model that shows catastrophic global temperature increases there are many more than do not.
Claim 10: C02 is the most important greenhouse gas and is the cause of climate change.
Evidence Presented: none.
The Facts: Water vapour is the most prevalent greenhouse gas and has the most effect on climate. However, even with this in mind, water has not caused catastrophic climate change. Also surprisingly, water (in the form of clouds) is often omitted from the computer models of climate because it's effects are too difficult to model.
It should be noted that nature pumps 150 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Man made contributions account for about 7 billion tonnes. The level of CO2 is measured in parts per million. The increase has been 33% to the current level of 380ppm.
Explanation of Greenhouse gases: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
global warming is not happening, the same thing happened 30 years ago and this time it will do the same
climate changes is indirectly effect on the earth..it's visible! One think is that CO2 is the main cause of Climate Change...you know it..!
Some scientists believe it (or at least act like they do) so it must be true. Just like the world must be flat right? Global warming is such a joke.
You don't need to be a scientist to see that global warming exists. Climate changes are "visible", longer and tedious summers, less cold winters...all the contamination must have an effect on the earth!
Feny b&b prague
I'm interested to what evidence you have found showing the CO2 level increasing after the temperature increases. What is your source?
Data for C02 levels increasing after temperature increasing comes from the Ice core studies. The data is used in the documentary by Al Gore. Since the time span used in the graph is so big, the graphs don't accurately display the correlation.
Check the following articles and also search google:
See item under the heading: “Ice Core Data” in the Wikipedia article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/30/co2-temperatures-and-ice-ages/
http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/ice-core-graph/
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